Make no mistake, Oklahoma is a quality team. Kyler Murray has proved to be one of the best quarterbacks in the nation this season, and their offense is littered with playmakers on the outside. The offense is fun, electric, and very fast. But let's face it, they have no shot against Alabama.
Although the Sooners lead the nation in points per game (49.5), they accumulated those points against some putrid defenses. Their last three opponents (Texas, West Virginia, and Kansas) were ranked 68th, 74th, and 80th in total defense in the nation. Oklahoma only played one top 25 defense all season, against Army. Coincidentally, that game was also arguably their worst offensive performance all season. Furthermore, their last six opponents have an average total defense ranking of 86. They’ll be walking into the buzzsaw that is the Crimson Tide, as they are the 4th ranked scoring defense and are the 10th ranked total defense in the country.
Speaking of defenses, Oklahoma’s is absolutely horrid. The Sooners are ranked 108th in total defense, giving up an astounding 448.1 yards per game. Their passing defense is even worse, as they come in at 128th in the nation. In their past 5 games, they’ve allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for an average of 354 yards per game. During that span, they gave up more than 500 passing yards twice and allowed less than 300 yards only once (against last place Kansas).
Alabama is the second ranked scoring offense in the nation, averaging almost 48 points per game. The Tide’s 7th ranked total offense is lining up against the 108th ranked defense in the nation for four quarters. Alabama has already beaten six top 50 defenses, scoring an average of 40.5 points per game in those matchups. They’ve also beaten two top 15 defenses this season, including the third ranked total defense in the country (Mississippi State). Oklahoma’s highest ranked defensive opponent was TCU (26th ranked total defense).
This is the best offense Nick Saban has ever had and Oklahoma does not match up well against them. The Crimson Tide have an embarrassment of riches on the outside, headlined by All-American Jerry Jeudy. The Sooners have not shown the ability to stop anyone, let alone arguably the best collection of receivers in college football. Jeudy, Waddle, and the rest of the Alabama receivers should be able to run wild in that secondary. Although Oklahoma is posting better numbers against the run, they have not really played any elite run teams to this season. The best running game they faced all season was Army, and they gave up well over 200 yards in that game. Damian Harris and Josh Jacobs headline a backfield that should be able to bully Oklahoma's sub-par defense behind their physical offensive line.
Oklahoma is not one of the four best teams in the nation. They played a weak schedule in a weak conference and got in the playoff after beating a four loss team in their conference championship game. They’re a high-flying, soft, and finesse football team that has yet to be challenged by a truly elite squad this season. The Tide is going to roll the Sooners.